Understanding America's War on Iraq - Oil, Dollars and Israel
2003 Dead or Alive? Saddam's Secrets Oil & Dollar Economy The Israel Factor Russian Convoy Ambush It ain't over $900m update More Questions update II The Wall of Shame Curtains for Saddam 2004 Who really caught Saddam? 2005 The Contractor Scandals Civil War	2006 Zarqawi Assassinated From Bad to Worse Vietnam Without the Water Why Stay in Iraq? Lack of Imagination 'Rebuilding' Iraq Scam Lack of Responsibility Gangland Iraq Genocide for Dollars Why is the U.S. still in Iraq? A Most Ambitious Failure Saddam's Execution 2007 Death Squads Return Crime Incorporated More of the Same The Embassy	2007 Fooled Again? Inconvenient Facts Why War on Iraq? 2008 Various Updates Lies and more Lies Who Cares About Iraqis? A War for Oil? A War for Genocide References News Resources

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War on Iraq Special Report, written by Freydis

Dead or Alive? (April, 2003)

... and the question is of course about Saddam Hussein. According to a video released, Saddam appears to have been alive and well as late as April 9th, 2003. [1] This would be immediately before Iraq fell and after several bombing attempts by American forces intending to kill him and his ranking staff.

The suddenness of the fall of the Iraqi government despite repeated rhetoric of eternal resistance has surprised many, especially the Arab world itself. Comparisons between Lebanon and Iraq were common. Although Israel invaded Lebanon and remained badly mired for some 18 years and the large city of Beirut delivering massive resistance, Iraq turned out to be nothing like Lebanon. Except for the first part of the war the military resistance to American forces in Iraq was both scattered and inconsistent. This is not to say it wasn't intense at times or that Iraq as a whole under the despotic authority of Saddam could have lasted much longer, even prolonging the conflict into a Vietnam of sorts given the proper motivation. Basra for instance in the south, about the first city that coalition forces encountered on their drive north from Kuwait proved surprisingly stubborn in its resistance to invasion forces and steadily escalating number of American and British casualties. Keep in mind that this was the first theater of combat to ever see M1A1 main battle tanks destroyed and knocked out in combat by Iraqi forces. Marines were in constant gun battles with unknown, shifting guerilla style enemies. Sandstorms and high-winds were slowing down allied advances and creating accidents. Meanwhile poor communications and sleep deprivation led to a rapid series of fratricide incidents, mistaken targeting and other 'accidents'. It's a good thing the heavy combat did not last any longer than it did because it was not going to be a pretty war for the Americans. Hundred of pan-Arab volunteers were streaming into Iraq by bus from Egypt, Syria, Jordan, all over, just to fight the American forces in Iraq but the game was over before they could even play!

Yet despite the frenetic pace of victories presented to the American public by their biased mass-media, stumbling over themselves to prove which network is more 'patriotic' in its lack of objectivity, the war did not even put a dent into Iraq's military forces. The vaunted Republican Guard was not even scratched, most of their equipment remained because they learned to hide them and scatter them around instead of doing the opposite and seeing them get obliterated as during the first Gulf War.

Saddam knew that Iraq could hold out and prolong the conflict into another Vietnam for America or at least another Somalia. Somalia as typified by the Hollywood movie 'Black Hawk Down' was Saddam's blueprint for resistance. Around a year ago he ordered hundreds of light trucks, the kind that drive around Somalia with machine guns on the back, for use by the Fedayeen guerrilla forces in Iraq. This sort of scattered, opportunistic attacking proved fairly effective in Somalia and it was looking to be at least that in Iraq. So why did Baghdad not turn into another bloody urban-warfare scene even bigger than Basra? Why did all the command and leadership elements simply vanish at the exact same time and where did they go? Why were none of the bridges into Baghdad ever destroyed? And if Saddam had chemical weapons why didn't he use them?

Another big question right now is all the brand new Federal Reserve money in the form of huge bails of unopened $100 dollar bills popping up all over Baghdad. This is not just in banks but even in private houses in upscale neighborhoods; the total so far is in the billions! Another billion in gold bullion was found in a Baghdad bank and the Marines had to sized it even as the looters were about to do so themselves. Tariq Aziz's house was looted and it seems that most of his valued possessions, the kind you'd want to take with you like photographs, were still there. All of this points to a very rapid egress on the part of the Saddam clique.

Saddam's Secrets

I think all of these questions can be answered if we look at it from the perspective of Saddam half-expecting to leave from day one. Every wily dictator has a Plan B in the back of their mind whether they tell others or not. This is one reason why they last so long - they always play it safe. Saddam had already barely escaped with his life at least two bombing attacks directly targeting him from the Americans, some have said these attacks missed by only three hours! Saddam knew it was only a matter of time before they got a lucky shot and his ran out. By early April it was fairly clear to him that Plan B needed to be invoked. At some point a deal was brokered for his safe escape from Iraq likely along with his family and some of his ranking government. This likely occurred very late in 'the game' hence the rapid exit and near instantaneous vanishing of the military leadership. Baghdad fell without a fight because no one was left to give any orders!

It's very likely that even before the war began Saudi Arabia had already sent out tentative appeals for Saddam to step-down and save the Middle East from the social and political turmoil that would inevitably ensue from such an egregious and discretionary war as this one on the part of the Bush administration. Saudi Arabia was probably the most at risk from the likely public revolts and riots that would come from war on Iraq as their government is already weak enough and public sentiment near boiling to begin with. Saudi Arabia had a significant interest in seeing this war either not happen or end as quickly as possible and the surprisingly robust resistance in Iraq at the beginning of the shooting was very bad news for the Saudi government in that regard. Bush even said as much that to see Saddam go rather than fight would be acceptable if not preferable. And this is where the confluence of interests arises. About April 9th it seems Saddam decide to take up Saudi Arabia with their offer of exile rather than face the next 2000 pound bomb falling from the sky. He may have gone through Syria first probably in single, unpretentious cars. It's know that all his important staff already had multiple passports and documents to get them anywhere and money was not an issue. Yemen has been talked about as another very safe place for him to hide among the sympathetic.

But now the heat is on Syria and even if Saddam was still there he couldn't stay much longer. Yemen is very remote and the government has been trying to crack down on rebel groups already. Saudi Arabia is the safest place because they are already aligned with the Bush administration. And there is precedent for this. Saudi Arabia provided and still provides sanctuary to Uganda's notorious dictator Idi Amin, a true pillar of Islamic faith there! If Saddam is anywhere he's probably in Saudi but the terms of his escape deal no doubt stipulate that he remain invisible for at least the remainder of Bush's term in office.

But in Iraq right now Saddam's secular Ba'ath party remnants are already consolidating their power. They may even re-emerge in slightly altered form as part of the new government, it wouldn't surprise me. Besides that, the religious fervor gripping Iraq is definitely worth noting - remember Saddam is not Islamic but tribal in roots and his politics are secular-socialist. Religion was suppressed in Iraq until shortly after the first Gulf War in a frantic bid to re-glue Saddam's country and his power back together. It worked but at the price of de-centralizing some control and placing it in the hands of local chiefs and tribal bosses as well as some religious leaders. Today this effect is re-emerging as a renewed interest in creating an Islamic state and kicking out the American military occupiers but to American interests this is like going out of the frying pan and into the fire! [4]

Whatever the case, this war has confounded the 'experts' and had several surprising twists to it already and it's not even over yet. Now, on to the money trail.

Oil and the Dollar Economy

First off the American economy is only competitive in the world today due to cheap energy prices, it's not labor costs, it's not even worker productivity really. America has cheap gasoline, low electricity costs and low energy taxes as compared to most any other industrialized country. This advantage means that American products can be transported and fabricated at lower cost than many other places. Needless to say the economic health of America is dependent upon cheap and plentiful energy while oil or natural gas form the basis for most of this energy. Very high prices or interruptions in power supplies are poison to the American economy. This fact alone is justification enough to economic authorities for a country to go to war, especially during a recession.

So, low energy costs are a huge competitive advantage but this in itself is not enough to make American the number one economy that it is. The second even more crucial factor is called Dollar hegemony. This means that the Federal Reserve notes are so widely used around the world that they have assumed a de facto authority as the dominant currency. Most of the world's commodities are denominated in Dollars when they trade and just about all oil is traded in Dollars too. And if that weren't enough American control, oil trades are done through New York's NYMEX exchange. The advantages of Dollar hegemony are astounding and easily explain the mysteries of American exceptionism in economics like why the United States can continue to run up massive trade and budget deficits that would cripple any other country. The secret of Dollar hegemony is that all those Greenbacks are what's called fiat currency meaning they have no backing in any substance like gold, just a promise of repayment upon demand. American Dollars are just IOU's, they are just debt, and they can be printed in any amount needed to suit political or economic interests of their government.

Normally printing money wildly without any concern for inflation would quickly drive the economy into a tailspin as the currency rapidly devalued but America can export its inflationary money and trade them for basic commodities like bananas from Ecuador or oil from Saudi Arabia. This is the equivalent of you or me going to the grocery store and paying for it with Monopoly game money! And guess who gets stuck holding the bag so to speak? The store does, or Ecuador or Argentina or Saudi Arabia, etc. Some countries quickly build up a surplus of Dollars and have to convert them because America doesn't want their own Monopoly money back. Sometimes this takes the form of them buying American government bonds by the multiple billions like in the case of Japan or expensive American weapons systems as in Saudi Arabia.

Other countries can't get enough dollars in trade from selling their raw commodities to meet basic national needs and are forced to borrow to stay afloat. Usually the only way they can get funding is from very large American banks such as CitiGroup or Chase Manhattan or through American government agencies. These debts are of course in Dollars and many countries soon end up bankrupt or just implode like Argentina or Ecuador. The United States can always pay off it's own debts or buy more commodities by simply printing more Dollar bills but no other country has that loophole. So places experiencing economic instability like Turkey or Brazil, they get International Monetary Fund (IMF) bail outs denominated in, guess what? Federal Reserve Dollars of course! And who owns them after that? Take a guess. Not surprisingly the IMF is based right in the middle of Washington DC; it masquerades as an objective developing world assistance agency but is really a shameless tool of the government powers just a few blocks away. Note that Russia was in the same situation a few years ago but they figured out the scam and paid off nearly all their Dollar IMF loans with oil cash even before paying off any other loans. Smart move.

In a few cases such as Ecuador the entire economy has been 'stabilized' by eliminating the native currency and replacing it with Federal Reserve greenbacks. But by doing so the country loses all control over their own economy because it can no longer deficit finance (print money) to pay for anything. This is good in the sense they cannot over-spend but bad in the sense they are completely at the mercy of the loan holders in the United States, essentially reduced to economic slavery necessitating increased natural resource extraction to deliver the commodities to America for a token payment in Dollars.

So obviously, all the little countries would love to pay for everything with Monopoly money too but they lack the economic and political clout to do it. They don't have a New York or a Chicago to serve as commodity trading hubs, they can only fight for scraps. This is the primary reason behind the advent of the Euro economic system itself, to get a piece of that hegemony action for Europe! And now we know why Bush administration multi-millionaire plutocrats like Donald Rumsfled go off on bizarre tangents attacking longtime allies like Germany and France calling them wimps, cowards, 'old-Europe' etc. but simultaneously building up England as heroes. England does not use the Euro but France and Germany do! Even Iraq figured this out and in 2002 started to denominate what little oil they could sell legally in Euros (€) switching away from Dollars ($).

Iraq is now being intentionally flooded with millions in Dollar bills, surprised? [2] The stated reason is to jump-start the Iraqi economy with payments to 'civil servants' or for the more likely but unstated reason as bribes to hush-up rebellious elements. Even though this is supposed to be temporary it's very likely to be permanent. No way are the American authorities going to give up the power that goes along with a Dollar denominated Iraqi economy! Even if a new Iraqi currency is eventually circulated it will almost undoubtedly be pegged to the U.S. Dollar.

Another reason the Bush administration initiated war on Iraq is that by controlling Iraqi oil, even if it is not directly being piped to American cars and power plants, it can still be used as a bargaining tool against the other countries of the world that do rely heavily on Mideast oil. Unlike America which gets much from Alaska and Venezuela, Japan is very reliant on Mideast oil, about 80% of their imports, and helps to explain their government's wildly enthusiastic support of this latest foray into Iraq. Australia may well be in the same situation for oil and could also explain their government's pro-war enthusiasm too. The American government can now use Iraq as a powerful tool of economic and political leverage throughout the world, rewarding allies and punishing dissenters just on the basis of allocating Iraqi oil. Finally one of the most convincing incentives for war against Iraq is to placate the powerful Israel lobby.

The Israel Factor

One simply cannot understand American foreign policy without Israel in the equation and this war plan unfolding today is about Israel at least as much as it is about oil. The military threats to Israel come primarily from Iraq which was an ulterior motive for the first Gulf War by W. Bush's father. However even after bombing them into the ground then, Iraq still has missiles like the Scuds which directly threaten Israel but absolutely nothing that could possible reach any fortress or strike American interests, just Israeli ones. The Israeli government headed by ex-General Ariel Sharon and a panoply of zealously pro-military Likud party members are adamant in their anti-Iraq stance. Direct American control of Iraq eliminates Saddam's support to the Palestinian cause and removes the direct missile threat too.

The second direct military threat to Israel is Syria and lo' and behold this is exactly the target Bush & Associates have latched onto in the Iraq war's aftermath, trumping up charges of chemical weapons and anything else that they can use as pretext for war. The number three threat to Israel is Iran and now not only does the U$ have a military base in the heart of west-Asia but Iran is nearly surrounded with nominally American controlled Afghanistan on the other side, Syria is nearly surrounded with Israel on the other flank. All these enemies of Israel can be either kept in line through fear or more likely directly targeted through economic warfare such as the sanctions about to be slapped on a 'non-compliant' Syria and the oil deprivation against Syria and Lebanon of more limited effect. Of further direct benefit to Israel is the fact that they are set to get a direct pipeline of Iraqi oil through Jordan and terminating at the Israeli port of Haifa. [7] This plan was originally envisioned in 1975 under Kissinger and promoted by a then much younger bureaucrat known as Donald Rumsfeld. The construction contract was to go to none other than Bechtel, primary contract winner to rebuild the important (oil) parts of Iraq now in 2003.

So now we have a pretty good idea of why this war was started and maybe even where it will lead in the short-term. But several key questions still remain to be answered such as where are the chemical weapons that were endlessly trumpeted by Bush & Associates as an imperative threat to world stability justifying immediate military action? It would only seem logical that if Saddam really had these things and was obviously aware of the corner he was locked into that using them on American troops would be a given. Yet this did not happen. Intense UN inspections prior to the war failed to find any credible evidence of chemical weapons or indeed any banned weapons wroth mention. They found a small remotely controlled plane that was made from slapped together spare parts that couldn't even fly. They found some harmless aluminum tubes that Colin Powell of the State Department blatantly lied about to the world as being useful for making nuclear materials. During the war multiple reports of white powder and mysterious chemicals all turned out to be innocuous - pesticides, flour, etc.

The Mysterious Case of the Ambushed Russian Diplomatic Convoy

Despite protests from the Bush regime the Russian embassy remained occupied and functional for most of the shooting war, monitoring the conflict around them. As American ground forces closed in on Baghdad and bombs began to fall uncomfortably close to their building the Russians decided it was time to leave, shredded documents as all embassy staff are trained to do and packed up what they needed onto a convoy to head for Syria. The Russian embassy team fully coordinated with the American military on their planned exit route to ensure their safety. However upon leaving they were attacked in Baghdad by American forces. The actual damage was limited and could have been worse but it still succeed in slowing the Russians down and forcing them to leave some vehicles, apparently. Whatever the case, this event was highly inconvenient for Condi Rice who happened to be starting a semi-covert diplomatic mission in Russia at this exact moment.

So basically the American's say they were shooting back at Iraqi soldiers but their excuses couldn't fly and they just decide to cover it up as much as possible. The question is why did this happen? This sort of egregious 'accident' is reminiscent of the American bombing of the Chinese embassy in Serbia during that Clinton war (see report: Just Say NO to NATO). Keep in mind that Russia has been a consistent benefactor and sponsor of Iraq just like to Serbia. It is known that the Iraqis captured at least one (maybe more) completely intact AH-64D Longbows, arguably the most advanced attack helicopter in the world. The Serbians shot down an F-117A Nighthawk stealth fighter and very likely scooped up the parts and sent them off to Mother Russia. A Longbow is not quite as good a catch but the radar is worth the weight in gold, at least. Similarly the Iraqi archives are mostly missing and speculation resides on where they could have gone to. Some think the Russians funneled out incriminating documents via the diplomatic convoy and that the Americans knew of this and that's why they tried to ambush them. Whatever the case something is going on behind the scenes and it doesn't smell nice.

It ain't over 'till its over

Famous last words from Generals and Presidents aside this conflict is far from being over. Sporadic fighting both between ethnic groups and between occupying American military forces and disgruntled Iraqi factions will continue for the foreseeable future. The state of Iraq's vast oil resources have yet to be determined and so have the equally huge foreign debts [3] accumulated by the former Iraq government. Indeed, whatever long term plans the Bush administration has for Iraq besides permanent control of at least four key military bases may be open for debate but their immediate priorities in Iraq remain completely transparent. The Oil Ministry building not only survived the bombing campaign unscathed but is now one of the few buildings in Baghdad to be thoroughly guarded by American military forces.

So far United States funds to rebuild a bombed-out and sanction-impoverished country have been appallingly low. The stated reason is so that other countries will kick-in more funds! But as far as American interests are concerned this is winning the battle and losing the war. If the Iraqi's are not on America's side then the whole effort is just taking a fairly stable, centrally controlled minor threat and turning it into a decentralized, ethnically and religiously charged polyglot with a white-hot grudge against America.

America can win any military battle but the war is not won with military might alone. Americans are set to pay a very high price for their military victory unless their political leadership quickly wakes up to this fact.

The $900 Million Dollar Update (July, 2003)

One of the most astonishing anomalies emerging from the smoking remnants of Baghdad has to do with the multi-million dollar bundles of Federal Reserve bills found stashed in safe-houses. When I first mentioned this it was too early to form any adequate picture of what it meant but now details have filtered out which seem to suggest a concerted effort by Saddam and his sons to organize a resistance movement in the wake of a predictable American military victory in Iraq.

The story goes that immediately before the ground war began Saddam's son(s) went to the Central bank in Baghdad and ordered $900 million dollars removed. [8] This would likely have necessitated two to three large trucks to haul it all away! Some speculate it was sent to Syria but if it was instead dispersed around Baghdad it would very neatly explain the bundles of cash being found (see above). These bunches had all the hallmarks of being directly from a bank as they were wrapped in plastic still with the official seals and kept in neat metal boxes.

Why did the Iraqi central bank have over a billion dollars in American money just sitting in back of the bank vault? This is not standard banking procedure and it makes even worse business sense. Granted this was not a typical bank trying to make a profit by investing their funds but rather a government entity and also one rarely bothered or molested by Saddam. The Iraqi central bank was an independent entity, or at least as much as was possible in Saddam's Iraq. Still the fact remains Iraq was a heavily sanctioned and impoverished country that got most of its funding from illegal fuel trucks driving to Syria for cash and operating outside of the UN food for oil program. Was this accumulation over ten years enough to explain the money? But why would Saddam keep it in the local bank instead of in his own private Swiss bank account? Why did Saddam not take the money with him?

So although his plan to fund a resistance movement may have met some snags with the loss of two thirds of the cash, Saddam's other plan for resurrection ala Osama bin Laden seems to be on track. An audio tape has been released exhorting Iraqis to rise up against the occupation forces in Iraq. [9] At this point one thing is clear - Saddam is not defeated yet and much like a bad summer movie sequel he will be back in one form or another and President Bush has already bought everyone a ticket courtesy of the American taxpayer. 07.05.03

Saddam may be gone but his supporters remain, leaving friendly reminders in the form of graffiti.

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Admitting they don't know where Saddam is or even if he's deal or alive, the United States government now offers a $25 million reward for his capture or proof of death. $25 million is the same amount still offered for catching Osama bin Laden. Would be bounty hunters may also be interested to know that $15 million is offered for information leading to the capture of Saddam's two sons, Odai and Qusai. 03.07.03

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Like a clichéd ending to a bad gangster movie both of Saddam Hussein's sons, Odai and Qusai, were shot dead in a lengthy firefight while barricaded inside a house in the northern Iraq town of Mosul after overstaying their welcome and being turned in. Further, Saddam's own power network was dealt a significant hit as his two sons were about the only people he trusted and could use to carry out orders.

Although it's widely hoped attacks on American forces will decrease with the death of these two, this may be more wishful thinking than fact as many of the insurgents in Iraq have come in from outside the country. Iraq is now a giant playground for anyone in the Arab world with a grudge against America to visit and try and exact revenge. 23.07.03

Where is everybody? - A Few Questions on Iraq (October, 2003)

Why can’t the Occupation Forces find Saddam Hussein?
This seems especially odd since he’s most likely still in Iraq, hiding in a small corner of the country and probably in one town! Maybe if he’d left a forwarding address for his magazine subscriptions the Americans could have found him!

What happened to the rumored Saddam body doubles?
Supposedly Saddam had several people surgically altered to look exactly like himself and they would wander around Iraq and soak up the bullets of assassins or something like that. It seems odd that none have been spotted or arrested. And how would the American forces identify the real Saddam from a double, DNA, and intense interrogation?

And another thing, why have the old Saddam leadership clique not been arrested and tried?
Catch and release! Many have been found and arrested but almost immediately they are released and sent home! Why? Is that smart given the guerrilla warfare going on?

So, absolutely NO weapons of mass destruction found at all in Iraq?
You read right. Some fighter planes were found wrapped in plastic and buried in shallow sand. This lead to thought of finding actual WMD buried someplace but nothing has been found and couldn’t have been of any use to Saddam in that capacity anyhow. Conclusion: Saddam, if he ever had any WMD, destroyed, lost, sold, got rid of them after the first Gulf War. No WMD, indeed this has to rank as one of the biggest Presidential blunders of recent history. This pretext for war against Iraq was completely fabricated from day one; it was all built on one lie after another and as of yet no one in the Bush administration has been held accountable even as American soldiers continue to die in Iraq on a daily basis! Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld and the rest of the profligate posse thought that the lies wouldn’t matter because they’d win and write the history books. How much did you wager? All of it! Oooh, so sorry!

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It needs to be reiterated that the American public DID NOT want to invade Iraq, however a sizeable portion of them did SUPPORT the Presidential decision made to do so. OK, this is not democracy! The decision to invade Iraq did not originate in heartland America and rise up as a unified chorus until Congress and the President responded, no this was more like monarchism – all hail King George II of Texas!

The public supports a King and his decisions not because they necessarily think his decisions wise and benevolent but because openly opposing him serves no useful benefit to their own lives. Unfortunately this is what America has descended into, a low-grade plutocratic dictatorship where the Executive authority can start any war anywhere he wants to, concoct and implement (through executive order) any policy he wishes all regardless of public opinion. Indeed now public opinion is just an extension of the Kings anyway and so are the people just an extension of his own property. 28.10.03

The Wall of Shame: Lying Liars and the pro-Israel NeoCons who love them

George W. Bush President – permanently residing in state of denial. What? Me worry?!

Vice President - permanently residing at undisclosed location. What conflict of interest? Dick Cheney

Donald Rumsfeld Secretary of Defense - ol' funny face. Don’t worry, it’s all under control.

Deputy Defense Secretary - war on Iraq mastermind. Misread tea-leaves Paul Wolfowitz

Richard Perle Under-Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon (appointed civilian). Not just another ‘beady-eyed bastard'

Curtains for Saddam (December, 2003)

December 13th, American soldiers on another mission to find Saddam were busy scouring Ad Dawr on a tip-off from an informant. After nearly giving up, closer inspection revealed a tomb-like secret underground hiding place just barely large enough for one person to fit into, then a disheveled and defeated Saddam emerged from his ‘spider hole’. The only possession of any value discovered nearby was a suitcase with $750,000.

Although at this point the Red Cross has not had been allowed to see him and indeed the whole story lacks independent, outside verification, it does nonetheless appear that the Saddam Hussein, and not just a body-double, is now in the custody of American military forces in Iraq.

Questions still unresolved at this point include, who if anyone gets to collect the $25 million reward for Saddam’s capture, what will happen to Saddam, and what effect will all of this have on events inside Iraq? Things we do know: Saddam was too busy running to coordinate rebellion operations in Iraq and his capture will not materially change the scale or intensity of guerrilla warfare on the ground in the country. In the long run the effect is more problematic since Saddam on trial could create a martyr for the resistance, albeit an unlikely one. It could also give a boost to the rebel fighter leaders inside Iraq because they have the potential to assume to the role and authority of Saddam now that he’s out of the picture!

Ironically Iraq is becoming exactly what Saddam was placed in and maintained in power by the United States to prevent: the rise of religious fundamentalism. [Preventing the rise of the Communist party in Iraq was another aim.] Remember, Iraq is essentially an artificial state, it's a colonial vestige of the British Empire composed of vastly disparate and antagonistic ethnic and religious factions.

Although the bipolar geopolitical situation was slightly more complicated amid the crumbling Cold War, Bush Sr. still had enough sense to recognize the magnitude of the situation and allow Saddam to stay after Gulf War I. Of course Bush Sr. also worked for the same organization (CIA) that helped to put Saddam in power in the first place. The fact remains that tyrant and military strongman Saddam was the only thread holding the precarious but secular Iraqi state together. Unless your Dubya Bush or you’ve got your head in a paper bag, it’s plain to see that civil war in Iraq is practically inevitable. More so than even Afghanistan after the Soviet invasion, Iraq is becoming an incubator for Islamic radicals to train, test weapons and tactics and then spill out into other parts of the world. The American invasion of Iraq has made the Middle East a much more dangerous place than it already was and by extension made the world a much more dangerous place as well. Further, without any credible exit strategy or means of establishing a viable replacement government to Saddam’s deposed regime it is clear that the United States is in it all very deep. 19.12.03

Who Really Caught Saddam Hussein?

This has been a deep background story since just before Saddam’s capture but it is increasingly likely that the Kurds did capture Saddam and that they held him for two weeks or so prior to the official announcement / staged capture by the Americans. The Kurds certainly had every reason to go after Saddam and the inside intelligence to do the job. This was convenient for both sides because the Kurds could use the time to bargain with the Americans for the concessions they really want and also allowed Bush to gain the political points from Saddam's capture to be timed exactly the way he wanted it for domestic consumption. The most intriguing twist of events that this presents is the fact that the Kurds now will start to gain the political and economic authority they have long sought, and long been denied by all the regional powers from Turkey to Jordan and beyond. And because the autonomy and control over the oil rich north is already happening this leads me to conclude that the Kurds really did catch Saddam and it's not just an idle rumor. Certainly it has not been disproved and not even denied by any of the parties involved.

Problem is, a win for the Kurds will be seen unequivocally as a loss for everyone else in the region because in the game of musical chairs that is Middle East geography the Kurds have always been like the seventh player in a six-chair game. This makes civil war inside Iraq and probably spilling over into nearby countries too, very likely. If the Bush administration follows through on its as yet unstated concessions to the Kurds it will invariably worsen the social and ethnic unrest in the region. Iraq is now for all practical purposes an intractable dilemma because no matter how many times one analyzes it, it always loops back to the same thing - the only way to hold this polyglot of conflicting groups together is a feared and ruthless strongman, a Saddam Hussein. The only other option is to conclude that holding old Iraq together is simply unrealistic and devolve power into separate regional authorities and hope that the ensuing fracas will eventually burn out and a new balance of power will emerge. The nearest comparison I can think of is the Balkans in southeast Europe that finally broke apart after the dictator Tito fell from power, but we should also be aware of what happened afterwards! Anyone remember Kosovo?

Clearly if short-term regional stability in Iraq is a goal of the Bush administration, for instance to extract the oil, this is impossible for all practical purposes no matter how the cake is sliced.10.01.04

Bags of Money: The Contractor Scandal in Iraq

Waste, fraud and corruption amongst the contractors hired to work in Iraq is not a new story but news of the funding used to pay the contractors has added a novel twist. It appears that the Bush administration tapped Iraq’s Oil For Food program account, taking something like 8 billion dollars, in order to provide the financial liquidity necessary for operating the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Iraq. The CPA was the interim government established by the Bush Administration to setup reconstruction contracts, disburse money, organize services and basically run Iraq before an elected government could be formed.

The anti-corruption organization Transparency International recently rated the financial fraud and mismanagement in Iraq as exceptionally serious: “If urgent steps are not taken, Iraq ... will become the biggest corruption scandal in history." Details of this scandal are still emerging but so far it places great doubt upon the ethical superiority of the Bush administration as compared to Saddam’s since both parties have now been implicated in the gross misuse of money from the same UN program! The Bush administration's argument is that they appropriated the cash to rebuild Iraq yet they did not allow competitive bidding and instead spent billions on favored American contractors, most of which were either crooks to begin with or soon became corrupt because of the disbursement mechanism, in this case literally nothing more than bags of hundred dollar bills! Now it emerges that the records and accounting of the CPA’s financial disbursements are missing, forged, or even nonexistent in the first place.

Since the Iraqis had no input on how their own oil earnings were being spent the Bush administration perpetrated theft on a massive scale against the Iraqi people in order to fund their imposed regime on that country. This is even more ironic when considering the level of criticism that was directed at the United Nations over allegations of fraud and corruption in the management of Iraq’s Oil-For-Food funds, yet when the independent inquiry run by Paul Volcker was released recently it cleared United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan of wrongdoing. The ball is back in Bush’s court now.

In other news, Iraqis are increasingly disappointed and disaffected by the continuing inability of their elected leadership to move the country forward or indeed to agree on much of anything besides the need to get the United States, excuse me, Coalition forces out of their country. And speaking of the ‘coalition’ many of these countries such as Spain, Italy, the Ukraine, all want out and are looking for the nearest and quickest exit. For example, Burlusconi may still be a Bush supporter but the Italian public never wanted to get stuck in Iraq and definitely want out now that a car full of their people, a released hostage and an intelligence agent, were shot-up by shoot-first-ask-questions-later American soldiers. This means that by the end of 2005 it will not be much of a coalition effort, if indeed it ever was.

Insurgents continue to attack the fuel infrastructure in Iraq and that is depriving the country of both electrical power and funding from oil exports. Heading into the hot summer months Iraq is woefully unprepared to meet electrical energy demands. Over the course of this conflict, the American forces have managed to lose any sense of legitimacy in the eyes of the Iraqi people that they may have had initially through a lengthy series of events such as random arrests, detention without charges, prison abuse, financial mismanagement, and so on. If the elected Iraqi government remains unable to progress in any meaningful fashion they will soon lose legitimacy in the view of the Iraqi people as well. At that point the Bush administration will be left without any overt and remotely legitimate tools with which to control the situation in Iraq. Islamic fundamentalists remain the only element in Iraqi society that has any legitimacy and means of influencing the situation. 03.04.05

For details on the contractor corruption in Iraq and the theft of Iraqi money read these two articles:

• Oil for food: A hell of a scandal, by Ian Williams, Asia Times Online, April 1, 2005.

• Follow the Money: Watchdogs are warning that corruption in Iraq is out of control, by Michael Hirsh, April 4 issue, Newsweek.

The Great ‘Rebuilding of Iraq’ Scam

Congress has declared their intent to investigate allegations of fraud and waste by the contractors hired by the Bush administration to rebuild Iraq after credible evidence has emerged that such criminal actions were widespread, and indeed likely continue now. If the final conclusion of this investigation is anything but ‘massive corruption and financial fraud’ we will know the investigation is itself a fraud. Indeed it is clear by now that the whole intent of Bush & Associates' rebuilding of Iraq scheme was to be as wasteful and inefficient as possible. They ignored public complaints about allocating open ended contracts to disreputable or underqualified companies and undermined or underfunded financial oversight agencies so they could not adequately monitor to whom or to what purpose the money was going to!

At the same time the Bush administration has charged the United Nations and its own contractors with fraud and the misallocation of funds in the Oil-for-Food (OFF) program that was intended to provide Iraq with much needed food and supplies with its controlled oil sales while under sanctions. The hypocrisy of Bush & Associates is especially glaring in light of their own fraud perpetrated in Iraq that dwarfs in scale the allegations against the UN. Consequently, allegations of corruption by the UN in OFF are very unlikely to ever go beyond rhetoric from the Bush administration and the Neo-con schemers. The allegations are just a calculated effort to redirect blame away from the actual culprits.

The real intent of Bush & Associates was not to rebuild Iraq, it was to steal Iraq’s money, billions of dollars worth, being held in the Oil for Food fund. The could not do this directly because it would be obvious theft and the paper trail would be damning so they had to cook up some kind of scheme to make it look legitimate. This scheme took the form of ‘rebuilding’ Iraq, even though in further irony the damage was inflicted by a military invasion, punitive sanctions, and years of aerial bombing by United States and the UK as they enforced the ‘No-Fly-Zones’ over two thirds of Iraq. Now that we recognize this plan everything else makes sense, now we can see why certain contracting companies were favored over others and why there was an intentional effort to avoid oversight and accounting standards, even going so far as to pay with bags of cash despite the dangers of transporting it amidst a raging insurgency! 13.08.06

Civil War in Iraq 

Regardless of the smokescreen being thrown up from heated rhetoric and car bombs, Iraq has essentially split into three mini-countries. The Shiite’s control the southern third, the Sunnis have nominal control over the central third, and the Kurds the northern third.

The Shiite section of Iraq in the south is aligned with Iran because of ethnic and historic connections; they also have access to the Persian Gulf and major oil production capacity. So far, the Shiites for the most part have shown a surprising unwillingness to get involved in the civil war strife that is wracking Iraq. It seems doubtful this situation can be sustained given the increasing pace of the carnage bleeding out into the south.

The Sunni section in the middle of Iraq has suffered a major defeat having lost the exclusive control over the country they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein. Their chunk of real estate does not have the oil resources and their closest neighbor Syria, still in Ba’ath party control, is economically weak and politically marginalized. The Sunni of Iraq have little left to lose, consequently revolt and violence are widely seen as the only means left of rectifying the situation. Taking advantage of this situation is the cryptic and extremely militant Jordanian Abu Musab Zarqawi, acting for Al Qaeda in Iraq. Zarqawi doesn’t represent Iraqi Sunni interests but he knows how to exploit their disenfranchisement in conjunction with a steady influx of foreign fighters to build a formidable insurgency with the aim of forming a country run on the strict interpretation of Islamic law that can then be used as a base to do the same thing to neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia.

Of the three groups the Kurds are the most advanced in their quest for independent statehood. The Kurds now have their own international airport, flag, government and militia forces, as well as grand ambitions to reclaim a big chunk of Iran and Turkey that they claim is also Kurdish territory. Not only that, now the Kurds are pushing for a ‘no fly zone’ over northern Iran in a crass attempt to gain that land for Kurdistan by mimicking the low-level air-war campaign over Iraq for a decade after the first Gulf War. This situation is exactly why a disintegrating Iraq was so feared by Iraq’s neighboring countries because, in the game of ethnic musical chairs the characterizes the land distribution in West Asia, the Kurds were the group without a seat and now that they do have a ‘chair’ they are pushing someone else out in the process.

The Kurds and Shiites have no reason to compromise with the Sunnis, so even constructing a confederated Iraq is a long shot and realistically the only possibility is a loose association of disjointed states. Iraq has effectively become a giant Yugoslavia in heart of the middle east. The next phase in this torturous development will be ethnic cleansing as each group struggles to assert control over important portions of land. The city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq is already experiencing this process as the Kurds move people in and force others out. The Kurds know that lines on the map are meaningless without the demographic facts on the ground to back them up.

American and coalition forces are caught in the middle of all of this. The grand notions of reconstructing Iraq have stalled as the security situation continues to deteriorate. Most of the military effort is focused on a shell game of reclaiming villages and towns from insurgents, leaving to retake another town, and then coming back to do it all over again. For all practical purposes the Army is locked in stalemate and without a viable and functional pro-American government in Iraq that can defend itself, United States forces have no way of getting out of the bloody mess they’re trapped in. What the civilian planners of this foolish conflict had to learn the hard way is that the only way to hold Iraq together, being a tenuous multi-ethnic agglomeration, is through a Stalin-like dictator i.e. Saddam Hussein. Saddam was the keystone that held the structure together and no practical way exists to put humpty dumpty Iraq back together again without that keystone.

The most pathetic result from this fracas is that all of the elements of civil society that America tried to impart to the new Iraq such as democracy, human rights and the rule of law, have all been discredited because they are intricately associated with the weak and corrupt regime imposed upon the country through force. None of the three groups in Iraq want to be a part of the American regime just as they don’t want to be a part of a federal Iraq, all of the parties involved are just exploiting it for their near-term gain. Equally pathetic is that the process of drafting a constitution has not brought Iraqis together in mutual cooperation as promised but instead has driven them apart as it has exposed the deep divisions between the separate parties! 

The Consequences Come Home

The official statistics for the United States' economy indicate around a 3% national growth rate. Unfortunately, this economic growth is quite narrowly distributed, mostly in construction thanks to the speculative real estate bubbles in markets across the country, with more popping up at an increasingly rapid pace. The other growth sector is of course the defense and related infrastructure/support contracting industry. Most every other sector of the American economy is stagnant or declining, but since a few are getting rich while real estate values are rising it is just enough to present the illusion of a moderately healthy economy.

Actually the United States’ economy is far from healthy. High oil prices and chronic, record setting trade deficits are draining Dollars out of the country as fast as they can be printed. Offsetting this to a small extent, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq provide an initial boost to specific sectors of the economy due to the direct federal, debt-funded, spending. The problem is that since the infrastructure being built is in another country, the direct benefit to the American taxpayer is dubious at best but of significant benefit to the corporations, CEOs and shareholders benefiting from the contracts. Besides that most of the reconstruction in Iraq is being demolished as fast as it can be built by a frenetic insurgency that shows no signs of abating. Anymore these reconstruction projects are simply getting put on indefinite hold because so much of the funding has to be diverted to security! [10]

Funding the ongoing war on terrorism is now approaching $7 billion dollars per month, and that’s just money needed to continue operations not the cost of equipment that will need to be replaced. The price tag of Bush’s war is actually higher on a monthly basis than the war in Vietnam even after adjusting for inflation! [12] Meanwhile, the Hurricane Katrina relief and reconstruction program is costing around $1 billion per day.

Bush & Associates continue to spend billions of Dollars with the national credit card to such an extent that the ballooning national debt and rapidly widening gap between federal income and federal spending is starting to make Wall Street investors very nervous. Not too surprisingly, gold is now at a 17 year high in price, a level not seen since 1987, the year of the New York stock market crash! Bottom line: a rising gold price is a solid indicator that the national economy is not on the right track.

An erosion of economic well being isn’t the only consequence of the escapades in Iraq, Afghanistan and everywhere else in the universe through the ill-defined ‘war on terrorism’. United States ground combat forces, the Army and Marines, are getting badly mangled in more ways than one through the ongoing, grueling combat in theater. Equipment lost through wear and tear or through combat will be costly to replace but it is the loss of personnel that really concerns the military planners. Recruitment shortfalls are only the most obvious indicator of trouble ahead. The modern military relies on advanced technology but especially upon highly skilled personnel for the critical advantage on the battlefield and once those people are gone, either through combat death or injury or simply because they are fed up with multiple back to back tours of duty, they are difficult, costly and time consuming to replace; the people with leadership skills that are lost will take years, even decades.

The real reason that America had to pull out of South Vietnam 30 years ago was because the Army had ceased to be an effective fighting force. Officer fragging, rampant drug abuse, and miniscule morale simply devastated the capacity of the Army to continue fighting in Vietnam. If the funding to pay for the military doesn’t dry up the Army will simply collapse from the pressure in Iraq and cease to be an effective force on the ground. The ground forces will not emerge from Iraq in the same condition that they entered. Armed conflict involving the United States over the next decade at least will see a return to the Clinton era policy of using Navy cruise missiles and air-launched precision strikes in place of ground combat. 

The Thief in Chief and the Great Giveaway

The similarities already emerging from the reconstruction of Hurricane damaged New Orleans indicate that the crony capitalism, corruption and general financial malfeasance characteristic of the Bush administration is not an aberration but part of an intentional plan. [11] Only Congress, not the President, can allocate money from the budget but Bush & Associates have found a novel means of getting around this barrier. By using the pretext of a disaster, be it artificial like Iraq or natural like Hurricane Katrina, they can exploit the imperative necessity of quick reaction to the situation to extract multi-billion dollar supplemental budgets from Congress with few, if any, limitations restricting how to spend the money or who to give it to - it’s an emergency after all! Once the funding is in the pipeline then all the people at the head of federal departments, the people that were appointed by President Bush & Associates, use their influence to divert the billions of dollars to the people and corporations that they favor.

The Bush administration is playing the public like a fiddle while they burn the Empire and have their associates act as the private, for-profit fire department. From carpet-baggers to war profiteers, opportunism is just the American way, right?! 16.09.05

Zarqawi Assassinated

On June 8, 2006 the Bush administration announced they had successfully killed public enemy number one, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, near Baghdad Iraq using two 500lb bombs delivered via F-16.

Zarqawi had practically every bombing and nefarious deed in Iraq pinned on him by the Bush administration, and the Pentagon even admitted they had intentionally exaggerated the threat from him in a calculated propaganda effort. Now that he is out of the picture, assuming his death isn’t just more Pentagon propaganda, then a new public enemy number one will have to be concocted since Osama bin Laden is, apparently, not important anymore.

So despite the barely concealed excitement in the rhetoric from the Bush administration’s mouthpieces and the American media outlets, the outcome is unlikely to slow the pace of killing and insurgent attacks in Iraq or elsewhere. Is the war over now? Can all the troops finally come home?! Yeah right. What has the killing of Zarqawi really changed?! Has either side lost the desire to continue the conflict? Hardly. Iraq now holds the distinction of being the most violent place on the planet.

Zarqawi had a frenetic run and it’s surprising how long he did last against the most powerful military empire in history, but his days were clearly numbered. Besides the multiple death sentences charged against him, from the Jordanian government for instance, Zarqawi had managed to alienate, or kill, nearly every potential ally in the region from tribal leaders to Shiite and even Sunni Iraqis with his ultra-violent tactics and singular and exclusionary version of Islamic law. Nonetheless he did not seem to lack for weapons, tactical allies, foot soldiers and suicide martyrs to conduct his campaign against the occupational regime in Iraq and the coalition military forces operating there.

Zarqawi knew the rules of the game he was playing. He was living by the sword and was undoubtedly aware that he would eventually die by it, yet others just like him are more than willing to take his place.

Many American’s probably aren’t aware of the massive effort that went into this operation. Thousands of people toiling for years, millions of collective hours, while burning through billions of dollars - all that effort just to find and assassinate one man! Something is seriously wrong with the United States, the national leadership isn’t even just treating the symptoms by attacking terrorism, now they’re an active participant in the sickness. The Bush administration is trying to use terrorism to defeat terrorism!

So considering the enormous resources required to kill just one threat, imagine what will be required when it’s not just one Zarqawi in a small region of a small country in a far corner of the planet, but ten Zarqawi’s all over the world. This is where we are headed because as long as persistent injustice and pervasive violence are prevalent terrorism will follow when people are given no other option to resolve their grievances. 08.06.06

Iraq in 2006: From Bad to Worse

Iraq is now characterized by a pervasive, low level civil war featuring refugees fleeing the country en masse and ethnic cleansing against the ones who don’t have the money to buy or forge the documents to get out. The south of Iraq, focused on the critical city of Basra, is run by criminal gangs that siphon-off resources to benefit their cliques while their violent militias kidnap, torture and extort opponents. The north of Iraq is under nominal Kurdish control, with the city of Mosul at the center, but the two political groups running the show, the Kurdish Democrat Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), are increasingly at odds with each other. The oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk is an